有了Uber神器 私家车或成历史|123696com

泡沫雕刻机 | 2020-09-27

123696com_With a near record-setting investment announced last week, the ride-sharing service Uber is the hottest, most valuable technology start-up on the planet. It is also one of the most controversial.上周宣告了完全创纪录的巨额融资之后,共计乘租车服务Uber已沦为全球最炙手可热且最不具价值的科技初创公司,但与此同时,它也是最不具争议性的公司之一。The company, which has been the target of protests across Europe this week, has been accused of a reckless attitude toward safety, of price-gouging its customers, of putting existing cabbies out of work and of evading regulation. And it has been called trivial. In The New Yorker last year, George Packer huffed that Uber typified Silicon Valley’s newfound focus on “solving all the problems of being 20 years old, with cash on hand.”本周,欧洲各地再次发生了针对Uber的抗议活动,它被指漠视安全性、对顾客展开价格欺诈、令其现有出租车司机失业,以及躲避监管。

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还有人说道,它没什么价值。去年,乔治·帕克(George Packer)在《纽约客》(The New Yorker)中曾气愤地写到,硅谷新的关注点就是,“用手头的钱来解决问题所有不存在了20年之久的问题”,并说Uber就是一个典型。It is impossible to say whether Uber is worth the $17 billion its investors believe it to be; like any start-up, it could fail. But for all its flaws, Uber is anything but trivial. It could well transform transportation the way Amazon has altered shopping — by using slick, user-friendly software and mountains of data to completely reshape an existing market, ultimately making many modes of urban transportation cheaper, more flexible and more widely accessible to people across the income spectrum.虽然投资者坚信Uber值170亿美元,但它究竟否值这么多钱就很难说了;就像任何其他创业公司一样,Uber也有可能遭遇失利。然而,虽然Uber有诸多缺失,它决不是毫无价值。

就像亚马逊(Amazon)转变了零售业一样,Uber也有可能转变运输业——通过设计精致、用户友好关系的软件以及海量数据来完全重塑现有市场,最后使许多的城市交通模式更加低廉、更加灵活性,更加更容易为有所不同收益阶层的人所用于。Uber could pull this off by accomplishing something that has long been seen as a pipe dream among transportation scholars: It has the potential to decrease private car ownership.Uber可以通过减少私家车保有量来构建上述愿景。交通学者长期以来仍然指出这是不有可能的事,但Uber有这个潜力。

In its long-established markets, like San Francisco, using Uber every day is already arguably cheaper than owning a private car. Uber says that despite dust-ups about “surge pricing” at busy times, its cheapest service, UberX, is usually 30 percent less expensive than taxis.在Uber的成熟期市场,比如旧金山,每天用于Uber有可能比享有私家车更加省钱。Uber称之为,尽管在高峰时段“定价下潜”(surge pricing)的作法引起了一些争议,但公司最低廉的服务Uber X一般来说比出租车低廉30%。Now that Uber, Lyft and other rivals are embroiled in a vicious match for dominance across the globe, ride-sharing prices over all are sure to plummet. The competition is likely to result in more areas of the country in which ride-sharing becomes both cheaper and more convenient than owning a car, a shift that could profoundly alter how people navigate American cities.由于Uber、Lyft以及其他同类公司都接踵而来了目的攻占全球市场的恶性竞争,共计乘租车服务的价格终将下跌。这种竞争有可能造成的结果是,在美国更加多地方,用于共计乘租车服务比享有私家车更加节约、更加便利,这一改变可能会为美国城市人的上下班方式带给深远影响的转变。

Over the next few years, if Uber and other such services do reduce the need for private vehicle ownership, they could help lower the cost of living in urban areas, reduce the environmental toll exacted by privately owned automobiles (like the emissions we spew while cruising for parking), and reallocate space now being wasted on parking lots to more valuable uses, like housing.未来几年,如果Uber和其它此类服务能顺利减少私家车市场需求,将有助减少市区的生活成本,减少私家车对环境的影响 (例如找寻车位时所废气的废气),并把目前浪费在行驶上的空间用在更加有价值的地方,比如建设住房。Paradoxically, some experts say, the increased use of ride-sharing services could also spawn renewed interest in and funding for public transportation, because people generally use taxis in conjunction with many other forms of transportation.对立的是,一些专家说道,更好地用于共计乘租车服务不会带给对公共交通的新市场需求以及更加多针对公交领域的投资,因为人们在用于出租车的同时,不会配上用于许多其他交通工具。

In other words, if Uber and its ride-sharing competitors succeed, it wouldn’t be a stretch to see many small and midsize cities become transportation nirvanas on the order of Manhattan — places where forgoing car ownership isn’t just an outré lifestyle choice, but the preferred way to live.换言之,如果Uber这类共计乘租车服务获得了顺利,很多中小城市将有可能超过曼哈顿那样的理想交通状况——在这些地方,退出私家车不光是一种特立独行的生活方式,也是人们注目的生活方式。“In many cities and even suburbs, it’s becoming much easier to organize your life car-free or car-lite,” said David A. King, an assistant professor of urban planning at Columbia University who studies technology and transportation. By car-lite, Dr. King means that instead of having one car for every driver, households can increasingly get by with owning just a single vehicle, thanks in part to tech-enabled services like Uber.“在很多城市甚至是郊区,在没汽车或少用汽车的条件下决定生活于是以显得更加更容易。

”戴维A金(David A. King)说道。金是哥伦比亚大学(Columbia University)城市规划的助理教授,专门研究科技和运输。金博士说道,所谓增加用车意味著,一家人可以更加依赖一辆汽车应付日常所须要,而不是每人享有一辆汽车,这一定程度上要感激像Uber这样的科技服务。

Transportation scholars are just beginning to study whether the ride-sharing industry will encourage us to give up our cars, but results from some related studies look promising.运输方面的学者对共计乘租车行业否不会希望人们抛弃私家车的研究才刚跟上,但一些涉及研究或许前景悲观。Susan Shaheen, the co-director of the Transportation Sustainability Research Center at the University of California, Berkeley, has found that car-sharing services like Zipcar and bike-sharing services have already led to a significant net reduction of car ownership among users. While she is beginning a study into whether Uber-like services have the same effect, she said it was plausible to guess that they would also reduce levels of car ownership.苏珊·沙欣(Susan Shaheen)是加州大学伯克利分校( University of California, Berkeley)交通可持续性研究中心的主任,她找到冷布卡(Zipcar)等汽车分享服务以及一些单车分享服务早已导致用户私家车拥有率经常出现了显著上升。

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苏珊现在开始研究像Uber这样的共计乘租车服务否不会有某种程度的效果,她说道,估算这类服务也不会减少私家车的拥有率。“I’ve been studying this area for about 17 years, and what we’re seeing now is a ubiquity of mobile devices that is really altering this industry,” she said.“我研究这个领域差不多17年了,现在我们可以看见,移动设备的普及显然在转变着这个行业。”她说道。

To see why Uber and its ilk could prompt many of us to give up our cars, it helps to understand the role that taxis play in urban transport. Taxis and other car services are usually seen as the province of the rich, but that’s only partly true, studies show.要解读Uber等服务为何不会促成很多人抛弃私家车,首先要弄清楚出租车在城市交通中的起到。出租车和其它汽车服务一般来说被视作富人的象征物,但研究表明并非几乎如此。The richest Americans do use taxis more often than middle-class Americans, but so do the poorest Americans, who rely heavily on taxis for trips that aren’t practical through public transportation — shopping trips that involve heavy parcels that wouldn’t be convenient to take on the bus, say, or a ride back home after a medical procedure.在美国,最富裕的人显然比中产阶级更加常常搭乘出租车,但最贫困的人也是如此。在乘搭乘公共交通工具不过于现实的情况下,他们不会相当严重倚赖出租车。

比如说,购物后有很多极重的东西都不方便拿着公车;此外,手术后也必须搭乘出租车回家。And though you may think of taxis as a competitor to subways and buses, several studies have found just the opposite.虽然你有可能视出租车为地铁和公交车的竞争对手,但多项研究却找到,情况恰好相反。In one recent study based on GPS data from New York City cabs, Dr. King and his colleagues found that many taxi trips are “multimodal,” meaning that riders mix taxis with other forms of transportation. For instance, people from other boroughs might get to Manhattan by train, and then use cabs to return home late at night.最近在一项以纽约市出租车GPS定位数据为基础的研究中,金博士(Dr. King)及同事找到,很多出租车乘客的行程中都包括了多种方式,就是说乘客在搭乘出租车的同时,还用于其他交通工具。

例如,其他区的居民可能会乘火车到曼哈顿,深夜再行乘出租车回家。“The one-way travel of taxis allows people to use transit, share rides and otherwise travel without a car,” the researchers wrote. “In this way taxis act as a complement to these other modes and help discourage auto ownership and use.”“由于出租车的单程性,没私家车的人们可以同时用于公共交通、分享乘租或其他方式上下班,”研究人员写到。

“这样一来,出租车就沦为其他交通方式的补足,有助减少出售及用于私家车的积极性。”A survey commissioned by regulators in San Francisco found that if taxis were more widely available, people would use public transit more often, and would consider getting rid of one or more cars.旧金山监管机构委托展开的一项调查找到,如果能更加普遍地获取出租车,人们不会更加频密地用于公共交通工具,而且不会考虑到退出一辆或多辆私家车。There’s only one problem with taxis: In most American cities, Dr. King found, there just aren’t enough of them. Taxi service is generally capped by regulation, and in many cities the number of taxis has not been increased substantially in decades, despite a vast increase in the number of miles people travel. In some places this has led to poor service: In the San Francisco survey, for instance, one out of four residents rated the city’s taxi service as “terrible.”只有一个问题:金博士找到,大多数美国城市的出租车数量显然过于。出租车服务的规模一般受到监管机构的容许,而且在许多城市,尽管过去数十年间人们的上下班里数大幅度减少,但出租车的数量并没大幅度快速增长。

因此在一些地区,出租车服务质量很差︰例如,在旧金山的这项调查中,每四名居民中就有一人指出,市内出租车服务“很差劲”。Ride-sharing services solve this problem in two ways. First, they substantially increase the supply of for-hire vehicles on the road, which puts downward pressure on prices. As critics say, Uber and other services do this by essentially evading regulations that cap taxis. This has led to intense skirmishes with regulators and questions over who has oversight to maintain the safety of the blossoming new industry.共计乘租车服务通过两种方式解决问题以上问题。首先,它们可以大幅度减少路面上供出租的汽车数量,从而为价格导致上行压力。

正如评论员所说,Uber和其他服务需要做这一点,主要是因为它们避免了容许出租车的那些监管。这早已引起了与监管机构的白热化争吵,以及应当由谁来监管这一蓬勃发展的新兴产业安全性的疑惑。These questions are likely to be worked out as these services mature; like most new technologies, this one too will attract increased legal oversight and a gradual regulation of the business.随着这些服务日益成熟期,这些问题可能会获得解决问题。正如大多数新技术一样,这一服务也将更有更好的法律监管,整个行业不会逐步规范。

But Uber has done more than increase the supply of cars in the taxi market. Thanks to technology, it has also improved their utility and efficiency. By monitoring ridership, Uber can smartly allocate cars in places of high demand, and by connecting with users’ phones, it has automated the paying process. When you’re done with an Uber ride, you just leave the car; there’s no fiddling with a credit card and no tipping. Even better, there’s no parking.不过,Uber不光是减少了出租车市场的车辆供应。感激科技的发展,它还提高了出租车的用途和效率。通过对乘客群体展开监测,Uber需要用智能的方式把车辆调配到市场需求较高的地方;通过与乘客手机关联,能使收费过程自动化。当你享用完了Uber的服务后,必要等候就讫,需要刷信用卡,也不必缴小费。

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更加篮的是,需要泊车。Compared with that kind of convenience, a car that you own — which you have to park, fill up, fix, insure, clean and pay for whether you use it or not — begins to seem like kind of a drag.与这么便利的服务比起,私家车或许或许出了毫无意义:你得泊车、打气、维修、上保险、洗手,而且无论用于与否,都要花钱。

“And if your car sits there five out of seven days, suddenly you’re starting to look at that fixed cost as being a waste,” Dr. King said.“如果你的汽车七天有五天都不必的话,你不会忽然找到,那些固定成本显然是种浪费,”金博士说道。。

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